Local Council Erections 2012

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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby Josef » Fri May 04, 2012 8:59 pm

Dexter St. Clair wrote:Nats tremendously over confident in Govan.

Ward: 5 - Govan

Candidate
Party Elected Number
of First
Preferences
Elected ADAMS, James Scottish Labour Party Yes 1,727
ARCHIBALD, Finlay Pirate Party Scotland 51
BACH, Jesper Scottish Green Party 229
BUTT, Shaukat Glasgow First 398
Elected DORNAN, Stephen Glasgow First Yes 603
DRUMMOND, Joyce Solidarity – Scotland’s Socialist Movement 60
FLANAGAN, John 644
HUGHES, Alan Scottish Unionist Proudly Scottish Proudly British 143
HUNTER, Allison Scottish National Party (SNP) Yes 1,460
MACKIE, Jonathan Scottish National Party (SNP) 443
MOHAMMED, Tahir Scottish National Party (SNP) 356

MURDOCH, Harriet Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party 219
Elected THOMAS, Fariha Scottish Labour Party Yes 504
YOUNG, Chris Scottish Liberal Democrats 87


I'm guessing you're correct, since, as I've said, not one bit of election material, canvassing, anything came my way from their direction. And although that was also true of the Labour Party, they don't really need to in this consituency. Must Try Harder (or at all)

The Liberal Democrats vote made me chuckle.

Point of order : the SLP first preference vote tally is almost exactly the same as the SNP one.

Can you get breakdowns of the various rounds, btw, like you could with the SG elections?
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby The Egg Man » Fri May 04, 2012 9:34 pm

Josef wrote: ...................

Can you get breakdowns of the various rounds, btw, like you could with the SG elections?



I've not seen them anywhere. The numbers listed are the first preference totals and are the ones listed, along with rejected paper numbers, on the Glasgow City Council site at http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/YourCounci ... tions2012/
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby dimairt » Fri May 04, 2012 9:44 pm

The Egg Man wrote:
dimairt wrote:From BBC Scotland webpage:

1643: Laura Bicker Politics Show reporter (On North Lanarkshire): "The big story was rejected ballots. It was about 2% of the vote. There were more than 2,000 votes rejected. This comes against a backdrop of postal votes being sent out with the wrong instructions. People who were sent postal votes were told to put an X in the box. It should be one, two or three not an X. I am told by a council spokesman that those instructions have made no difference to the current rejected vote. He told me he was confident that those instructions played no part in the rejection rate. He said the problem had been that people had voted for more than one first preference. An investigation is under way."

Durachdan,
Eddy


I note the 'we wiz robbed' comments have begun.


Not from me Egg Man, I posted this because I've been following the questionable Postal Vote in N Lanarkshire. I look forward to a close read of the results in tomorrow's papers - mind you , I don't get out much these days.

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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby The Egg Man » Fri May 04, 2012 9:46 pm

On a more serious note - did anyone ever do anything official about that matter? I really think it should be reported.
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby Josef » Sat May 05, 2012 7:50 am

]
Dexter St. Clair wrote:Ward: 5 - Govan

Candidate
Party Elected Number
of First
Preferences
Elected ADAMS, James Scottish Labour Party Yes 1,727
ARCHIBALD, Finlay Pirate Party Scotland 51
BACH, Jesper Scottish Green Party 229
BUTT, Shaukat Glasgow First 398
Elected DORNAN, Stephen Glasgow First Yes 603
DRUMMOND, Joyce Solidarity – Scotland’s Socialist Movement 60
FLANAGAN, John 644
HUGHES, Alan Scottish Unionist Proudly Scottish Proudly British 143
HUNTER, Allison Scottish National Party (SNP) Yes 1,460
MACKIE, Jonathan Scottish National Party (SNP) 443
MOHAMMED, Tahir Scottish National Party (SNP) 356

MURDOCH, Harriet Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party 219
Elected THOMAS, Fariha Scottish Labour Party Yes 504
YOUNG, Chris Scottish Liberal Democrats 87


I confess, shamefully, that I hadn't fully realised how the voting system worked until after the polls closed. I think I still had a subconscious notion that it was sort of like proportional representation with added opportunity. It's nothing of the kind.

I may still have this wrong (because I've gone for the wrong quota allocation formula - I haven't seen it stated which formula was used, so I'll go for the more usual), but here's how I now understand it works.

A councillor is elected when they reach the 'quota'. This is the number of votes cast, divided by the number of seats +1, plus an additional 1 vote, so in the example above, the constituency has four seats, so it's (total votes / 5) + 1. In Govan, this meant 6924/5 + 1 = 1386 per seat.

Vote counting goes in rounds, till we have all seats filled. Your first preference carries on until it either wins or is knocked out (by the candidate finishing bottom in the 2nd or subsequent round).

So round 1 here, we have Adams and Hunter elected straight off.

2nd round : now comes the bit I hadn't grasped. The excess votes for Adams and Hunter are transferred to the 2nd preference of folk who voted for the already-elected councillors, in proportion to those second votes. Everyone else's 1st preference carries on to the 2nd round.

Excess votes meaning the ones over the 1386 quota for election. And in proportion meaning the percentage of each second preference vote of the folk who voted for Adams (for the sake of example) in the first round.

In this case, the excess votes were Adams 342 and Hunter 75. So, if half the folk who voted for Adams in the first round went for Butt (again, for the sake of example) as 2nd preference, then Butt adds 171 to his 1st round total. If no-one hits the quota in this round, the lowest-scoring candidate is knocked out, and the 2nd preferences of their voters transfer to the next round. And so on. This explains the advice issued by the major parties on voting order preference - it's almost preferable for your 2nd and 3rd candidates to get 0 votes on round 1, as long as all your votes go to candidate 1.

If no-one has hit the quota by the end of this process, the highest remaining candidate(s) get the remaining seat(s).

So, a supporter of a Major Party could theoretically end up electing all four councillors. For a "I'd like minority candidate A to win, but if they don't then I really want major candidate 1, 2 and 3 to win' voter, it gets way more complicated. You have to judge the chances of your minority candidate being eliminated in each round before putting them 2nd or 3rd, and of the harmful effects on your major candidates of putting the minority candidate first (i.e. your major candidate vote might not kick in till the last round, or at all).
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby Sunflower » Sat May 05, 2012 11:53 am

Josef wrote:]
Dexter St. Clair wrote:Ward: 5 - Govan

Candidate
Party Elected Number
of First
Preferences
Elected ADAMS, James Scottish Labour Party Yes 1,727
ARCHIBALD, Finlay Pirate Party Scotland 51
BACH, Jesper Scottish Green Party 229
BUTT, Shaukat Glasgow First 398
Elected DORNAN, Stephen Glasgow First Yes 603
DRUMMOND, Joyce Solidarity – Scotland’s Socialist Movement 60
FLANAGAN, John 644
HUGHES, Alan Scottish Unionist Proudly Scottish Proudly British 143
HUNTER, Allison Scottish National Party (SNP) Yes 1,460
MACKIE, Jonathan Scottish National Party (SNP) 443
MOHAMMED, Tahir Scottish National Party (SNP) 356

MURDOCH, Harriet Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party 219
Elected THOMAS, Fariha Scottish Labour Party Yes 504
YOUNG, Chris Scottish Liberal Democrats 87

Does anyone know how come James Adams got so many votes? I'm in Govan, never heard of him before, and he got way more votes than the other Labour candidate, so it's not just party voters. It can't be just because he was first on the ballot paper can it? Can it?

And has anyone seen any summary of what happened to the deselected then ex Labour 'Glasgow First' candidates? Or, as another aspect of that question, how many of the new Labour councillors are new names for the same seats? Or even, how many members of the new council are new councillors, how many continuing?

How typical is the Govan example? - one continuing councillor, same party (SNP), one continuing councillor, different (allegedly) party (Glasgow First), two new councillors, same party as held the seats before (Labour)?

(Sorry to interrupt what looks like an erudite explanation of STP voting - I just wish everyone would be straightforward and stop trying to predict how everyone else is going to vote when deciding how to vote. Fat chance, I know.)
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby dimairt » Sat May 05, 2012 1:27 pm

The Egg Man wrote:On a more serious note - did anyone ever do anything official about that matter? I really think it should be reported.


I forwarded my notes to a journalist I know on the Daily Record.

Durachdan,

Eddy
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby The Egg Man » Sat May 05, 2012 2:49 pm

Sunflower wrote: ........
And has anyone seen any summary of what happened to the deselected then ex Labour 'Glasgow First' candidates? Or, as another aspect of that question, how many of the new Labour councillors are new names for the same seats? Or even, how many members of the new council are new councillors, how many continuing?

How typical is the Govan example? - one continuing councillor, same party (SNP), one continuing councillor, different (allegedly) party (Glasgow First), two new councillors, same party as held the seats before (Labour)?

..........................


Stephen Dornan in Govan looks to be the sole Glasgow First councillor.

I don't know about other wards but Anderston/ City returned the two sitting Labour councillors, although their first preferences votes were reversed this time round and the sitting Green councillor but failed to re-elect the sitting SNP councillor.

The sitting SNP councillor was replaced by the other SNP candidate who somehow managed to get 1,057 votes to the rejected candidate's 516. The new SNP councillor hadn't even stood in 2007.
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby The Egg Man » Sat May 05, 2012 3:20 pm

Re the absence of election materials.

I got a flyer through the post urging "Before you vote, find out if your local candidate wants to keep the true meaning of marriage".

It came from the Scotland for Marriage lot and, as you might expect from a group so clearly behind the times, it arrived today, two days after the ballot.
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby strange brew » Sat May 05, 2012 4:41 pm

dimairt wrote:
The Egg Man wrote:On a more serious note - did anyone ever do anything official about that matter? I really think it should be reported.


I forwarded my notes to a journalist I know on the Daily Record.

Durachdan,

Eddy


Given that the allegations are against a Labour chap and the Daily Record is a staunchly Labour paper, you might want to send it elsewhere just in case they, ahem, decide not to pursue the story. If you're on Twitter there are loads of Scottish journos you could get in touch with.
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby The Egg Man » Sat May 05, 2012 5:37 pm

I'm sure Newsnet Scotland will be delighted to be offered the tale :wink:
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby Dexter St. Clair » Sat May 05, 2012 7:01 pm

The Egg Man wrote:
Sunflower wrote: ........
And has anyone seen any summary of what happened to the deselected then ex Labour 'Glasgow First' candidates? Or, as another aspect of that question, how many of the new Labour councillors are new names for the same seats? Or even, how many members of the new council are new councillors, how many continuing?

How typical is the Govan example? - one continuing councillor, same party (SNP), one continuing councillor, different (allegedly) party (Glasgow First), two new councillors, same party as held the seats before (Labour)?

..........................


Stephen Dornan in Govan looks to be the sole Glasgow First councillor.

I don't know about other wards but Anderston/ City returned the two sitting Labour councillors, although their first preferences votes were reversed this time round and the sitting Green councillor but failed to re-elect the sitting SNP councillor.

The sitting SNP councillor was replaced by the other SNP candidate who somehow managed to get 1,057 votes to the rejected candidate's 516. The new SNP councillor hadn't even stood in 2007.


Steve will be back on the Labour Party bench. I would like to see the flyers the SNP put out with the recommended order of preference for their candidates.
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby Sunflower » Sun May 06, 2012 9:11 am

Dexter St. Clair wrote:
The Egg Man wrote:Stephen Dornan in Govan looks to be the sole Glasgow First councillor.

That went well then.
Dexter St. Clair wrote:
The Egg Man wrote:I don't know about other wards but Anderston/ City returned the two sitting Labour councillors, although their first preferences votes were reversed this time round and the sitting Green councillor but failed to re-elect the sitting SNP councillor.

The sitting SNP councillor was replaced by the other SNP candidate who somehow managed to get 1,057 votes to the rejected candidate's 516. The new SNP councillor hadn't even stood in 2007.


Steve will be back on the Labour Party bench.

Inevitable from the start, don't you think?
I would like to see the flyers the SNP put out with the recommended order of preference for their candidates.

I don't think this is what you meant, but in Govan I had an SNP card through the door the day before the election with Mohammed Tahir 1 Alison Hunter 2 Jonathan Mackie 3 which surprised me. I took it they were campaigning individually rather than (or possibly as well as) as a party. Or perhaps someone was off-message?
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby Dexter St. Clair » Sun May 06, 2012 9:29 am

Precisely what I meant Sunflower. Any other Govan ward resident receive an SNP card with a different order of preference?
"I before E, except after C" works in most cases but there are exceptions.
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Re: Local Council Erections 2012

Postby Sunflower » Tue May 08, 2012 9:41 am

I think I'd had an earlier thing from the SNP with Alison Hunter as 1 ... but I've cultivated a deliberately bad short term memory for election guff so could be wrong.

Meanwhile, for everyone gasping for the blow-by-blow details of the count, here they are. (Scroll down for menu on the right of all Glasgow wards.)

(Edited by Sunflower for braindead proofreading)
Last edited by Sunflower on Tue May 08, 2012 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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